"Heavenly" Cocoa literally reaching the heaven! Supply side problems can destroy chocolate industry

Chocolate products made by processing cocoa beans into the cocoa mass and cocoa butter have carved out a niche place in the hearts of consumers both young as well as old over the last 5 decades with a few international conglomerates ruling the roost. Chocolates create a dichotomous image in that some scientists feel they contribute to the run away obesity syndrome that is common in many developed countries while the scientific community including health specialists vouch for the good aspects of cocoa nutrition to elevate it to a pedestal based on the antioxidant credentials of cocoa phenolics present in abundance in this beverage crop. Probably both arguments are true if the ground reality vis-a-vis cocoa industry is taken into consideration. Per se chocolates cannot be considered an obesogenic substance unless they contain high levels of sugar and saturated fat, both capable of generating high calories, which may be unnecessary for a person consuming a regular balanced diet.and eating chocolates in moderate amounts can always be condonable with no guilty conscience! Emergence of so called bitter chocolates with low sugar levels as a healthy food bears testimony to this fact. It is against this context that one has to view the alarming reports about likely scarcity of cocoa beans predicted to happen soon. Let us look at the multidimensional impact of such a shortage on the industry as well as the consumers.

If industry leaders are to be believed chocolate prices have been going north during the last 3 years with prices registering more than 60% increase for most brands. This inflationary trend has been attributed to supply sources being adversely affected reducing the flow of bean very significantly. More than 65% of global production of  cocoa beans, estimated at about 3.7 million tons, is accounted for by western African nations like Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria.and any productivity decline there can causes shocks in the international cocoa market. According.to International Cocoa Organization production of cocoa has suffered a 40% decline last year due to the impact of the devastating fungal disease called Frosty Food that has ravaged the agricultural landscape in Africa. There does not appear to be any let up in the production decline which has already caused a deficit of about 70000 tons currently which may reach the 1 million ton mark soon in about 7 years. Imagine the consequences of such a dimension of shortage on the fortunes of the chocolate industry since cocoa beans cannot be substituted with any other known substance to day. Naturally chocolate industry will have to find ways and means to tackle this problem in the long run with an adequate and feasible response.  

The production decline in cocoa alone cannot account for the shortage being experienced by the chocolate industry which always has the means to absorb minor shocks through technological means. For example products like white chocolate, milk chocolate or other varieties do not need as much cocoa solids as pure chocolates or bitter chocolates and small dip in cocoa production can be dealt with by varying the product mix to lessen the proportion of these high cocoa containing products. Similarly cocoa butter which is an essential ingredient in good quality chocolates can be replaced or substituted to a limited extent by plant fats with similar melting and crystallizing properties. Sugar component also can be increased or suitable fillers like caramel, nougats etc can be incorporated to reduce the cocoa solids level. Naturally such changes in formulations can reduce the over all sensory quality of these products and if cocoa crunch continues as being predicted, consumers will have no option but to compromise on eating quality expectations.        

Another interesting point being mentioned in chocolate circles is that growth of chocolate market, currently placed at $ 50 billion, is going through a high growth phase resulting in widening of demands across the world. Such unusual demand for chocolate is largely being driven by countries like China, Europe and the US where chocolate consumption is growing at a rate considered very high. China which is an established economic super power to day, has more people aspiring to imitate the life styles prevalent in the US and Europe and chocolate industry sees a great surge in demand in this country. Western Europe with a $ 12 billion market never seems to be getting satiated pushing the demand for chocolates further .Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Belgium. are leading countries driving the market in Europe. In the US consumers are demanding bitter chocolates and products containing more than 70% cocoa solids which again is putting a stress on the supply side of cocoa beans. In other markets like India and other developing countries due to buying power constraints lower end chocolate products like milk chocolates which use only about 10% cocoa solids may meet the market demand. Eastern Bloc countries are reported to be emerging as a dynamic market for chocolate products which did not exist a few years ago. 

Adding to the worries of the chocolate industry there is a powerful movement campaigning against use of cocoa beans from countries like Ivory Coast because of extensive use of child labor in the plantations there. According to some estimates in Ivory Coast alone more than 2,00,000 children aged between 5 and 15 years are working in plantations there with about 6% being suspected to be there through child trafficking. The famous Harken-Engel Protocol.now being insisted upon for buying cocoa beans stipulates that child labor is not used in production activities in cocoa plantations though there is no international agency at present which has the mandate to enforce the Protocol. "Slave free" label for all chocolate products were suggested but no one seems to be taking this seriously. So are the consumers who at present are not sensitive to this issue of child labor though in future there could be pressure from consumer community on the chocolate industry to shun supplies from plantations employing child labor. This can certainly further restrict supplies of beans substantially in coming years.unless major chocolate manufacturers attempt backward integration with producers of cocoa beans to make certain that slavery is avoided or reduced progressively over a period of time.

While technological approach to design new products with lesser and lesser cocoa solids can meet the market contingency, long term solution can come only if efforts are made to increase cocoa bean production through expanded acreage for cultivation and increased productivity from the existing plantations. Probably it is a question of time before agricultural scientists are able to coax the cocoa plant to yield more crops but there is some anxiety that meddling with natural cocoa plant may unwittingly reduce some of the desirable qualities for which cocoa is known. As apprehended preliminary experiments with new cocoa plants have already confirmed that these new "avatars" have a different flavor profile once it is converted and processed into the chocolate products which the consumers may have difficulty to reconcile to! .Chocolate industry on the other hand is being pushed to a corner with no alternatives but to use them with the hope that consumers will eventually accept them. Surely chocolate industry is at cross roads to day and only imaginative, constructive and environment friendly approach can save it from catastrophe!

V.H.POTTY

http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com

Pulses production in India-Will it ever meet the domestic demand?

Pulses or legumes constitute a major component in the diet of Indian population which is predominantly vegetarian in their eating habits both by tradition as well as due to economic compulsions. Though most can eat animal based foods like meat, fish and egg, due to limited income per family they cannot buy these expensive food items at the prevailing market prices. Milk is another protein source which is produced in India adequately but here also the average price of Rs 30 per liter makes its proteins much more costlier than that in pulses. Most pulses have protein contents of 23-25% on dry weight basis while in fluid milk it is only about 5% on fresh weight basis. In the case of meat it works out to a protein content of about 21-25%. Cost wise the costs per kg of protein from these three sources are Rs 300 from pulses, Rs 600 from milk and Rs 1000 from meat. No wonder people will less per capita income are compelled to to opt for plant proteins to meet their health need of 50 gm of proteins per person every day. 

Some pundits feel that plant proteins are not of high quality when measured on scales of Protein Efficiency Ratio (PER) or Biological Value (BV), they being deficient in one or more of essential amino acids that human body cannot make in vivo. Probably this may be true but what one can do if he cannot afford high quality protein containing foods like meat? This is where food and nutrition science come to their help. Nature has a diversified source of plants containing proteins of different amino acid profile and therefore by judicial blending of different pulses and cereals one can get all the needed amino acids readily from such mixed diets. If Net Protein Utilization (NPU) another yardstick to measure protein quality is taken into consideration, egg ranks high with 90% plus mark followed by milk (80% plus), meat (65% plus), legumes (50-60%) and whole grains (50-60%). Two of the three limiting amino acids that humans cannot make in vivo viz Methionine is low in pulses and Lysine is low in grains. Considering that in a composite diet consumed by a vegetarian both legumes and grains are present and therefore the over all protein quality does not suffer from a nutritional perspective.

India being the largest producer and consumer of pulses has always been short of this vital commodity, forcing it to resort to large scale imports, some times almost 25% of its need being met by imports from countries like Canada, Myanmar, Australia, Russia and USA. According to government sources the country was supposed to have produced during 2013-2014 about 19 million tons (mt) with import of about 1.4 mt supplementing the availability to meet the demand of 21 mt within the country. What is disappointing is that the production of pulses has been stagnating during the last 5 years hovering between 18 and 19 mt annually. Why the country has not been able to raise production is a complex question and the international prices of these pulses fluctuate widely depending on Indian imports. In 2009-10 and 2012-13 the average imports were around 3.5 mt per year. Only in 2013-14 the imports saw a dramatic dip with only 1.4 mt being sourced from outside. Interestingly government offers decent minimum support prices (MSP)  to pulses ranging from Rs 2950 to Rs 4500 per quintal depending on which pulse one is talking about.

In the domestic demand situation Bengal gram or Chick Pea is at the top consumption being 9.7 mt followed by Tur at 3.3 mt, Moong and Urad at 3 mt each. Others account for another 3 mt. Interestingly Dry Peas account for the highest import being about 1.33 mt followed by Masur at 0.71 mt, Pigeon Pea at 0.47 mt and Chick Pea at 0.28 mt. Though in the strict sense Dry Pea is not a legume as is being understood by many, it is used in fresh or frozen form as a vegetable; nonetheless it does belong to leguminous family. Considering that India is the largest importer of edible oils, almost 3 times the quantity of legumes imported, government is justified in persisting with out sourcing pulses because of the health implications of pulses in Indian diet. However not taking enough efforts in achieving self sufficiency in pulses production cannot be condoned. Besides, neglecting the role of pulses in the food security scheme of the country can be disastrous in the long run for the health of Indian population, especially that segment having low per capita income.  

Talking about prices of various pulses within the country there does not appear to be any valid basis for some of the popular pulses being priced exorbitantly high making it beyond the reach of common man who either has to reduce pulse consumption suiting his purse or avoid buying them altogether. Same goes for edible oils also which are very highly priced, some of them costing as high as Rs 200 per liter to the consumer at the retail level. One of the demands made by pulse growers' community is that pulses like Tur and Chick pea must be included in the PDS food basket, priced reasonably, for the low income groups to get access to them. Manipulation of prices of edible oils and pulses is rampant with hording becoming a standard practice in the face of a soft governance system in the country. Will the government at least wake up now and "catch the bull by its horn" to give succor and relief to the much harried citizen?

The overwhelming obsession with cereals and sugarcane by the government is not understandable considering the astronomical import costs incurred while outsourcing pulses and edible oils draining billions of dollars of foreign exchange year after year causing hemorrhage to the public exchequer. As a part of National Food and Agricultural Policy of the country, oil seeds and pulses deserve priority considerations and all other crops, except cereals must play a sub-ordinate role. What ever be the cost there is an urgent need to prioritize allocation of resources from the government to raise all the food needs of the population qualitatively and quantitatively in the coming years. Government must be ruthless in restricting cultivation of non-essential crops so that adequate fertile land and inputs are diverted to the three crops viz, cereals, pulses and oil seeds. 

V.H.POTTY

http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com