Showing posts with label prices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prices. Show all posts

Thursday, December 13, 2012

THE VULGARITY OF PRICE SITUATION IN INDIA-IS THIS THE END OF"AAM AADMI"?

India is currently going through a crisis that has the potential to cause civil unrest unless some thing dramatic happens to pull back the country from the brink. While the government is getting increasingly isolated because of its wrong moves, actions and financial mismanagement, the alternative option to the citizens seems to be not rosy with every political party being tainted with corruption wherever they are in power. It is a reflection on the sorry situation prevailing in the country that economists and policy pundits are more concerned about rate of GDP growth which is anticipated to slide down to five percent plus from a heady nine percent plus 3 years ago rather than the crushing burden on the "aam aadmi" or the common man caused by inflation all around. The inflation may not be staggering measured by standards used for rating in the world of economics: it is nonetheless a frustrating situation to more than 90% of the population that takes pride as being Indian.

Ever since the opening up of the Indian economy (what ever that means!) in early 1990s, the country has seen the lot of poor people getting worse progressively because the environment created then was just the one needed for corporates to make money through the so called crony capitalism route. The public sector organizations were systematically destroyed in the name of under performance and practically every policy that encourages small scale industry was cast away. The process of enrichment of a few citizens was started by the government of India by favoring its employees as as well as the pensioners (also those in State governments) with massive increase in salaries and perks unheard in the annals of Indian history or any where in the world. With more money in their hands this segment of the population became part of the elite society with high buying power. On a conservative estimate these employees with their families form a substantial part of Indian population, about 50 million.The trading community with more than 30 million members was given a unrestricted environment to make money by slack enforcement of the laws of the country. If those in the corporate world are also added the total "consumer" population which can buy whatever they want can run to more than 100 million, sufficient to get attention by any investor in the world for a slice of the pie that is called Indian market.

The above factor is precisely playing out currently with GOI opening up the retail market to foreign investment. Those global giants are not pitching their tent in India to help Indian citizens but to sell their products to the rich Indians with plenty of cash living in comfort in towns and cities across the country. Interestingly GOI has laid down a condition in its policy orchestration that foreign retail stores can be opened only in urban areas as if it is a stringent condition! Even a child knows that more than 80% of the rural population can never aspire to step into a Super Market or a Mall with their limited income and the stipulation contained in the policy declaration is some what hollow. It is never clear as to which side the big retailers will take when it comes to clash of interest between the farmer and the consumer? If farmer is to be paid decently for his produce, consumer price will reflect that and if it is the other way of reducing consumer price, the farmer can never be paid what he deserves! Past history of big retailers tells a different story with both farmer and the consumer suffering equally, the only gainer being the "super middleman", viz the retailer!

For any one going around the Indian market will  be struck by
the incongruous situation prevailing in the country vis-a-vis prices of various products prevailing in the country. How can a common man buy an apple, priced Rs 25-30 a piece or any other fruit which costs not less than Rs 50 per kg? Even the common man's fruits Banana sells at Rs 3-5 a piece if it is a smaller variety and this can shoot up further during Hindu festival seasons (at least a dozen every year). Papaiya which was sold at Rs 10 per kg till recently shot p to Rs 40 per kg during the Ramzan season and never came back to the original price. It is unbelievable that a piece of cashewnut or Almond, those aspirational foods, can be as high as Rs 3 per nut, the retail price being in the vicinity of Rs 800-1000 per kg. According to nutrition pundits an average adult in India is supposed to consume daily about 300 gm of cereals, 30-60 gm of pulses, 0-30 gm of meat, 300 gm of vegetables, 100 gm of fruits, 300 gm of milk and milk products, 20 gm of sugar and 20 gm of fats for maintaining the health. How can a family of four (parents plus two siblings), belonging to low income categories can access to these essential foods with their current income at current prices? If one draws the graph of price fluctuations that is experienced during different part of the year, it may look like the print out of an EEG or ECG of a person with several peaks and valleys occurring with a sickening regularity! Unless GOI comes out with policies that will make available these foods to these vulnerable population at affordable prices, the country is bound to slide into a situation where proportion of undernourished and malnourished citizens will reach unbearable levels, affecting the quality of human resources required for nation building.

Leave out the fruits and nuts and shift the focus to vegetables which are supposed to fill out half the plate during a meal. It is just maddening to see tomato being sold at Rs 5/kg one day and within a few days it climbs to Rs 25/kg. Same is true with practically every vegetable grown in the country. Interestingly many studies have shown that the farmer who grows these produce does not get even a fraction of the consumer price, the majorportion being being swallowed by the so called middle men! Will the new players who are being offered a red carpet by the government help the farmer by putting more money in his hands. Experience in other countries where these high profile market oriented monoliths work shows that farmers will be the least beneficiary in this charade.

Maximum Retail Price (MRP) declaration is often touted as the instrument of GOI to control prices. This is a hollow claim because this provision of the law applies to packed products whereas only a small percentage of foods is branded and sold in sealed packs. Here again MRP indicated cannot be taken at its face value because many smaller brands inflate the same allowing the retailers sizable elbow room to reduce the actual selling price, some times as much as 50% of MRP, but still keeping sizable margin! Besides many retailing giants have their own in-house brands and they can always print inflated MRP figures with scandalous margins. Interestingly the much touted Package Commodities Act is a curse for the most unfortunate citizens in this country because, the moment the food is packed and sealed it enables the packer to add "value" which is nothing but a higher profit in disguise! For example a kilogram of Atta costs around Rs 40 if it is branded but at the street corner petty shop it is available at about 25 per kg.     Sugar when it is branded costs the consumer upwards of Rs 54 per kg while the small gives the same at Rs 30 per kg. This happens across the food spectrum and the high end retailers earn a killing profit in the name of better quality and shopping ambiance!

According to the National Planning Commission an income blow Rs 32 per day for a person is the cut off level to define him as belonging to the below poverty level group. Probably this is enough to buy adequate food to keep the body and soul together! But what about the other needs like shelter, clothing and other daily essentials? Unfortunately GOI seems to think that keeping the people alive is the only responsibility vested on it and by providing subsidies worth three half lakh crore rupees every year to its citizens, the people will cruise comfortably in the turbulent waters, that is called life! According to some statistics, almost one third of Indian population earns less than Rs 32 a day putting them in the category of people below the poverty line for whom the
supermarkets do not make any sense. Imagine how a country where only 3% of the population (about 35 million people) pay income tax can gloat over the entry of multinational retailers from western countries where more than 50% pay taxes regularly?

Looking at the statistics a little bit closely, the bitter reality can dawn on many honest citizens in this country that GOI is opening up the retail sector only to serve the top 6.2 million families, each earning an annual income of the order of 2, 15,000 per year plus and to a limited extent a small percentage of the so called middle class families of about 91 million, earning between Rs 45,000 and 2,15,000 per year. It is debatable whether even at this level of income these families can afford to buy an apple every day! Families with annual income below Rs 22,000 numbering about 102 million are never counted in GOI calculations. After the opening of the economy, between 1996 and 2010 there was a 419% jump in the number of top earning families which will be the focus of all foreign marauders getting into the country in the name of helping the nation to attain prosperity and upliftment of the poor!   

V.H.POTTY
http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com

Friday, October 1, 2010

A BUCKWHEAT "RIOT"?-THE RUSSIAN WOES

Russians are known for their "scarcity" syndrome which makes them hoard any commodity which is likely to become scarce in the market. The great shortage of salt that occurred three decades ago caused severe damage to the sewage drains because all salt stocks stored by the people during the shortage were flushed through the drains once salt availability eased! A similar situation is happening in that country to day because of the perceived scarcity of Buckwheat which is an important part of the diet for many people and every grain available is being siphoned off from the market by those who can afford to buy large quantities. The retail price ruling at about 50 cents a pound last year more than doubled this year making what ever is available in the market dearer.

Buckwheat is not a real wheat but it is considered some what more nutritious than the latter, being rich in high value protein (18%) but not gluten type and other nutrients like Iron, Zinc, Selenium and antioxidants like Rutin and Tannins. Russia is the leading producer accounting for more than 50% of world production. The unusual weather conditions that affected wheat production forcing the country to ban global exports, have also reduced the production of Buckwheat, creating a psychological fear about its availability. Looking back at history, unless the present government takes drastic measures to address the problem, uncontrolled unrest may still be a distinct possibility.

Unlike in the past there does not appear to be any let up from the Buckwheat shortage this year and the prevailing heat wave conditions, wide scale forest fires and extensive drought seem to be making the situation more grim for the Buckwheat supply. The familiar scenario of consumers, especially those belonging to the older generation, used to the daily diet from Buckwheat, trudging from one super market to another one in search of their staple continues to daunt the government and the matter is so serious that no less a person than the president of the country is visiting many provincial centers to personally assuage the feelings of the scared consumers, assuring immediate remedy to the situation. Government seems to have taken a stand that the shortage is not natural but artificially created by hoarders to hike up the market prices for financial gains. How far these "hoarders" would be able to thwart the credibility of the government remains to be seen.

Talking about hoarders, the natural question is about the identity of them because under the almost autocratic rule in Russia where punishment could be swift and severe for wrong doers, it is doubtful whether the traders would resort to cornering of stocks and naturally suspicion centers around the rich consumers who could have caused the present situation due to panic and apprehension. After all the production has fallen just by 30% and Buckwheat is not the main stream food, that role going to wheat. It is a historical truth that Russians had lived just on Potatoes during World War II and a small dip in production of a commodity like Buckwheat cannot be expected to impinge on the hunger or nutrition status of the population. But history has also recorded the bitter fact that even during the rule of the Czars, shortages of flour, sausage, table salt and Vodka had led to political unrest and probably the present rulers may also be worrying about the same.

The 2007 food riots in Asia and recent incidences in some parts of Africa are indicative of more frequent such episodes as a result of the demand for food outstripping production in many parts of the world and inflationary pressures that deny access to available foods in the market. Social unrests because of such imbalances in food sourcing can adversely affect world peace and the rich countries also will be sucked into the vortex of such developments.

V.H.POTTY
http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com

Friday, September 3, 2010

THE COCOA "KING"-TURBULENT DAYS AHEAD FOR INDUSTRY


Cocoa plants grown abundantly in Ghana and other countries have provided mankind with one of the most exciting ingredients, creating the fabulous Chocolate industry turning out a multitude of products with universal appeal, irrespective of age, gender and faith. Leading players in the global arena include Mars Inc, Cadbury Schweppe, Nestle SA, Ferrero Sp, Hershey and Kraft Foods, with a combined market share of almost 75% in a global sale of $ 40 billion. There are a few niche companies also in the scene offering specialty chocolates with various attributes, though their share is less than 1%. Organic chocolate products, in great demand lately, are now available in the main stream market, the total production being around 15000 tons an year.

Cocoa production is concentrated in Africa and Asia and major producers include Ivory Coast (37% of world production), Ghana (21%), Indonesia (13%) accounting for more than 70% of about 35 million tons produced each year by about a dozen countries. Fair Trade cocoa, a distinctly separate category of cocoa production, is produced by several countries who have subscribed to the idea that ethical production can only be sustaining force for the industry to survive in the context of widespread use of child labor by cocoa plantations. It is sad that though many smaller producers have subscribed to the Fair Trade cocoa alliance, only two major producers, Ghana and Ivory Coast are members of this group. The Fair Trade label is now being used by some of the chocolate industry players to indicate that their products are derived from cocoa beans produced by fair means without circumventing any local and international regulations.

As cocoa is a rich source of antioxidants and other nutritional components, chocolate products containing significant levels of cocoa solids are being touted as a health promoting material and an entirely new branch of chocolate industry under the banner of "functional chocolates" is emerging to popularize their consumption in a big way. Unfortunately the health aspects are distorted to a large extent because chocolates by definition are rich in saturated fat and sugar. How can any one succumb to such claims knowing well that like other confectionery items chocolate also can cause same adverse effects like metabolic syndrome and dental decay. Typically a plain chocolate sample contains about 35 gm lipids and more than 60% carbohydrates including white sugar. But the four health promoting constituents in cocoa that include Theobromine, Caffeine, Phenylethylamine and Serotonin contribute to the favorable ratings received by chocolates. These phytochemicals are believed to be working at Central Nervous System and brain levels to promote a feeling of well being, boosting the mood and a feeling of elation. While a dark chocolate version will have about 70% cocoa component including cocoa butter, most of the commercial products have less than 7% cocoa solids.

It is amazing that almost one third of the consumers eating chocolates consider them as a well being product capable of stimulation and relaxation and it such feelings which are driving industry to expand the health chocolate portfolio on a furious pace. To day bitter chocolates with almost 85% cocoa solids are sold in the market under famous brand names. Specialty products like ActiCocoa containing high levels of antioxidants polyphenols, Probiotic Chocolates for gut health and Tooth-friendly chocolates containing isomaltose are marketed targeting the health conscious consumers. What is not condonable is tall claims like heart healthy and similar unsupported statements on the label by some of the responsible industry players and they are probably taking shelter under the ambiguous labeling provisions which do not call for declaring the concentration of antioxidants or polyphenols or the ORAC value which would have enabled the consumers to discriminate between performing and non-performing products.

The multi billion dollar chocolate industry is in for a shock if recent reports about cocoa hording in the UK are to be believed. It is believed that one of the notorious dealers in the UK, Anthony Ward had been buying cocoa beans from where ever they were available during the last few months and his present stock would be adequate to manufacture more than five billion standard chocolate bars! The consequence of his hording is a steep rice in the cocoa price in the London market reaching levels unheard of during the last 30 years. His firm Armajaro holds about 7% of annual cocoa production sufficient to dictate global price of cocoa beans. Though he does not make even a single bar of chocolate, his knowledge about cocoa makes him a formidable player in global trading and closely monitors production in west African countries through local set ups. Though chocolate makers in Europe are making noises about the market "cornering" activities of this UK hedge fund entrepreneur, how far the ultimate price of chocolates will rise eventually due to this phenomenon is uncertain.

While talking about price escalation in chocolate products, there are expectations that with fast approaching cocoa harvesting season beginning October, there might not be much of an impact from the activities of horders like Ward. Besides cocoa forms less than 10% of the production cost of most of the mass produced chocolates and the recent spurt in prices to the extent of 150% may not influence the market price of most of the end products from cocoa. Fears are expressed because a similar effort in 2002 by the same speculator did cause some damage to the chocolate industry from which it was able to recover quickly. Besides many of the major chocolate manufacturers did learn a lesson from the 2002 experience and probably would have built up sufficient stocks to last till the new harvest arrives in October.

V.H.POTTY
http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

MANGO GOES THE "APPLE"WAY!-WHOM TO BLAME?


The prediction that there would be a Mango famine this year in India is really sad because this is not the first time the country is facing such a situation. Simplistic explanation that Mango production is "cyclic", is routinely offered by the establishment without ever bothering to look into the scientific basis for such a phenomenon if it really exists. Indian horticulture scientists have creditable records in developing newer varieties of fruits during the last 3 decades but their inability to ensure uniform production is a bitter reality. What it takes to prevent wide fluctuations in production of a fruit like Mango should have been found out long ago. True, organized cultivation of Mango is far and few and a major portion of the annual production comes from thousands of scattered gardens owned by individual families. The trees are neither irrigated adequately nor fertilized regularly, most growers considering what ever crop is harvested as a bonanza with practically no inputs. There are no systematic efforts to replace old trees which start yielding less and less after 40 years. The pre-harvest contracting system puts the responsibility of maintaining the trees on the contractor who takes great care but only to prevent people "pilfering" from his captive tress.

In sharp contrast Apple orchards in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh are better organized and have collective bargaining strength in fetching attractive price for their "fruits of labor". Added to this the governments there pitch in with economic support to boost the income of Apple growers. Considerable scientific research world over has enabled the growers as well as the whole sale buyers to harvest, pre-treat, pack, store, distribute and retail the fruit with minimum losses and earn substantial income from Apple growing. No wonder that Apple is available any where in the country 365 days an year and the retail price never comes down to a level less than Rs 80 per kg. With easing of import regulations, Apple varieties from China, Australia, the US and other countries are flooding the market, their retail price hitting the roof at about Rs 150-200 per kg.

Mango season is generally spread between April and August and it is normal for early and late arrivals to command high price. A price around Rs 20 to 40 per kg is considered affordable though fancy varieties like Alphonso may fetch even Rs 80-100 per kg. Mango business is not as transparent as it should be, because it is often difficult for the consumer to identify the variety offered. There are more than 1000 varieties of Mango grown in 85 countries all over the World though commercially hardly two dozen cultivars are important. About 50% of tropical fruits produced globally,is accounted for by Mango, grown in an area of 3.7 million hectare with an annual production estimated at 27 million tons. India is reported to have about 1.5 million hectares under mango cultivation producing 13 million tons annually, the nearest competitor being China accounting for just 3.8 million tons.

Though Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar account for bulk of the production, the variety wise statistics are not reliable. Indian varieties like Alphonso, Badami, Chausa, Dusehri, Langhda, Totapuri, Banganapalli, Kesar, Mallika, Mulgoa, Neelum, Pairi, Raspuri etc are well known and well established with unequaled taste, texture and aroma characteristics. But paradoxically the Florida originating Mango cultivar Tommy Atkins predominates the global market because of its positive traits like high productivity, firmer fruit texture, low spoilage and longer shelf life, though it is fibrous and less aromatic. In India fruit losses are heavy on the trees before harvest and post harvest perishability can be as high as 50%! It is a shame that the specialized National Horticultural Board of GOI has not been able to do much in putting the Mango growing and retailing business on a sound economic footing so far, in spite of tons of literature generated by Indian scientists available on every aspect of growing and preservation of Mango.

What is urgently needed is to develop varieties that can grow all year round with fruits that can keep well under low temperature and modified atmosphere storage conditions, amenable to country-wide marketing with minimum losses. Considering that almost all Indian varieties score well over those originating from other countries in terms of eating quality, the export market may be unlimited. GOI must come out with a policy to encourage organized massive cultivation of Mango dedicated for export by credible industry players. APEDA, the export promoting arm of GOI is doing a wonderful job in positioning Mango as an exotic fruit in the international market but the impact has not been dramatic as the traders are not able to sustain the quality and quantity. The present pre-harvest contracting system must be abolished and adequate organizational net work should be created to market Mango produce from small growers scientifically to benefit the consumer by preventing the middle man gulping a major part of the consumer price.

V.H.POTTY
http://vhpotty.blogspot.com/
http://foodtechupdates.blogspot.com